Wheat Market Update - 17th November 2025

I. Executive Summary

The global wheat market remained bearish throughout November 2025, driven by record production forecasts and strong balance sheets. However, short-term futures experienced volatility, especially around the commentary of the much-talked-about US-China Trade deal, which is yet to materialise.

Global benchmark prices (CBOT) rose approximately +5.6% over the 30-day period due to speculative positioning, but fundamental supply pressures capped the rally.  

The UK LIFFE market was generally Steady-to-Slightly Up, effectively insulated from international declines by currency movements. Overall, UK futures are roughly 2–3% higher than the late October low, but still relatively cheap in a longer-term context.

AHDB’s Early Bird Survey of early plantings for the 2026 harvest shows a 1% rise in the UK wheat area compared to 2025. The autumn drilling conditions were better this year than in 2024, with most of the drilling around us in Harlow complete by the end of September.

Key Drivers of Market Movement:

• Ample Global Supply: International Grains Council (IGC) data confirms world wheat production reaching a record 819 million tonnes (MMT). The USDA WASDE report projected global ending stocks to increase by 7.4 million tons to 271.4 million tons, marking the first year-on-year increase since 2019/20.  

• Data Volatility: The late release of the USDA WASDE report on November 14, following a government shutdown, triggered severe speculative unwinding and short-covering rallies, temporarily lifting prices despite strong supply fundamentals.  

• Sterling Protection: A weak Sterling provided a vital price cushion for UK domestic prices against the bearish trend observed in the US and EU.  

II. UK Market Focus

AHDB estimates UK wheat production in 2025 at about 11.8 million tonnes, up roughly 6% on 2024, but still about 8% below the recent five-year average. Yields are below average, yet industry briefings from UK Flour Millers point to generally good grain quality and plenty of wheat meeting breadmaking specifications.

Sterling has weakened for a third straight week. Reuters reports the pound near 1.31–1.32 against the US dollar and around 0.88 against the euro, the weakest against the euro in over 2 years. A weaker pound tends to support UK wheat prices because imports become more expensive and UK wheat looks cheaper to foreign buyers.

Please follow this link to read the UK Flour Millers Wheat Harvest Briefing - October 30th 2025

III. Global Wheat Outlook

The USDA released its November report on Friday afternoon, showing increases in wheat production for most major wheat exporters.  World wheat production for 2025/26 is increased from 816.2 million tonnes to 828.89 million tonnes, compared to 800.79 million tonnes for 2024/25.  Despite a small increase in wheat consumption (+4.34 million tonnes at 818.9 million tonnes), the increase in production results in an increase in global ending stocks of 7.37 million tonnes at 271.43 million tonnes.

We saw global wheat futures rally at the start of November with talk of a US-China Trade Agreement, with specific focus on the sale of wheat and soybeans between the two countries; however, it was mostly talk, with some small purchases made. Markets dropped back, driven by weaker-than-expected Chinese purchases of US wheat, despite the resumption of trade between the two countries. Reports show that China purchased only 120 Kt of US wheat for December delivery, in its first purchase since October last year.

Supply from key exporters

• IGC now projects the 2025–26 world wheat harvest at a record 819 million tonnes, up from about 800 million tonnes last season.
  The EU soft wheat crop is forecast at a record 136.4 million tonnes for 2025–26, 23 million tonnes above last year’s weather-affected crop.

• Russia’s 2025–26 wheat crop is estimated in the mid-80 million tonne range, with some forecasts near 86 million tonnes. Recent commentary also cites a Russian agriculture ministry projection of around 90 million tonnes.

• USDA expects Australian wheat output to be around the third-highest on record, with production near 34–35 million tonnes, well above the five-year average.

• Argentina’s outlook remains positive overall, but late frosts and heavy rain in southern regions in early November have introduced downside risk to what had been a potential record crop.

• In Canada, total wheat production is forecast at about 35 million tonnes, slightly above average, though quality on the durum crop has been hit by wet weather.