Wheat Market Update - 26th August 2026
| Instrument | Prior close (Fri 7 Aug) | Fri 21 Aug | Period end (Mon 24 Aug) | Change over period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE UK feed wheat — front month (Nov-26) | £199.50/t | £205.00/t | £207.50/t | +£8.00 (+4.0%) |
| ICE UK feed wheat — Nov-26 | £199.50/t | £205.00/t | £207.50/t | +£8.00 (+4.0%) |
| ICE UK feed wheat — May-27 | £206.50/t | £212.00/t | £213.50/t | +£7.00 (+3.4%) |
| High protein wheat, delivered — Nov-26 | £215.00/t | £221.00/t | £222.50/t | +£7.50 (+3.5%) |
| Low protein wheat, delivered — Nov-26 | £212.00/t | £218.00/t | £219.50/t | +£7.50 (+3.5%) |
| CWRS 13.5% delivered — spot | £291.00/t | £292.50/t | £294.50/t | +£3.50 (+1.2%) |
| MATIF milling wheat — Dec-26 | €232.00/t | €241.00/t | €242.00/t | +€10.00 (+4.3%) |
| GBP/USD | 1.3491 | 1.3646 | 1.3647 | +0.0156 (+1.2%) |
| GBP/EUR | 1.1669 | 1.1664 | 1.1689 | +0.0020 (+0.2%) |
Market Drivers
Bullish Factors
Exporter stocks decline sharply in 2026/27
Russia-Ukraine shipping squeeze
Weather: EU, US heat/ El Niño threat
Bearish Factors
Comfortable end-2025/26 major exporter wheat stocks
De-escalation in Iran-US hostilities
Middle East/ North Africa harvests shrink import needs
Executive Summary
📉 Sentiment indication: Revived Russia-Ukraine hostilities have reawakened concerns for Black Sea grain exports.
Alongside concerns over heat damage to European and US crops, and the re-escalation of Iran-US tensions until the latest cool-down, the Black Sea worries have provided cause to inject risk premium into prices, countering pressure from northern hemisphere harvests.
Tightening balance sheets, weather threats and geopolitical uncertainty continue to point to higher export prices ahead. However, large carryover stocks and harvest availability should keep rallies in check during the northern hemisphere harvest.
Week ahead (forward-looking; not a price forecast). Markets will watch AHDB's next harvest progress report on Friday 28 August, late-season US maize and soyabean weather following the Pro Farmer tour, and Black Sea developments; early ceasefire noise and reports of vessels leaving Ukrainian ports moved markets on 24–25 August and remain the key two-way risk.
Global Focus
Chicago wheat (CBOT — the US benchmark futures market) September contract climbed from 639.75 c/bushel at 7 August to settle at 681.50 c/bushel on Friday 21 August and 681.75 c/bushel on Monday 24 August, up 6.6% over the period. The bigger story was maize: the annual Pro Farmer crop tour forecast the 2026 US maize crop at 389.8 Mt, down 10% year-on-year and well below the USDA's 406.8 Mt August estimate, sending December Chicago maize up 5.2% on the week to a contract high and pulling wheat along. Paris milling wheat (MATIF — the Euronext European wheat futures market) December contract ended the week around €241.00/t, about €4.50 up on the week, and was quoted €242.00/t on Monday morning; Minneapolis spring wheat gained about 20 cents on the week.
The International Grains Council cut its 2026/27 world wheat production forecast by 4.3 Mt to 816.7 Mt, largely on Europe's summer heat including the UK — putting the global crop 27.5 Mt below last season — while also cutting its Russian and Ukrainian export forecasts and lifting their end-season stocks: the two countries are now seen holding 28% of major-exporter wheat stocks by end-2026/27, up from 18%. The first data on the 2026 French wheat crop showed above-average quality. In the Black Sea, attacks on commercial shipping increased, Russian wheat struggled to find buyers and Ukrainian exports remained restricted to Danube and overland routes. Against the bullish case sit large domestic crops in North Africa and the Middle East, the possible return of Indian exports, and a large volume of cheap Russian and Ukrainian grain trapped behind the deep-water bottleneck — supply that would move quickly if ports reopen.
UK Focus
ICE UK feed wheat futures (Nov-26, the front month) pushed above the key £200/t level, settling at £203.00/t on Friday 14 August and quoted at £206.00/t by 20 August, up £6.50 (3.3%) from £199.50/t at 7 August. The contract's highest price to date, £207.00/t on 22 July, is the next level to watch. Sterling strengthened to $1.3632 on 20 August from $1.3491 at 7 August, while the euro rate ended the period where it started at €1.1669; a firmer pound cheapens imported wheat in sterling terms and trims UK export competitiveness.
The harvest is well advanced, with 85% of the UK wheat area cut by mid-August. Quality has generally been good, but average yields for farms in the AHDB survey remain about 13% below the five-year average, and yields vary widely after another dry season. The next harvest progress repor from the AHDB is due out on the 28.08.
| Imported wheat, delivered (£/t) | 7 Aug | 24 Aug | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| German A 13% (breadmaking) | £257.00/t | £263.50/t | +£6.50 |
| German E 14% (premium breadmaking) | £281.00/t | £287.50/t | +£6.50 |
| French min 11% | £273.00/t | £280.00/t | +£7.00 |
| CWRS 13.5% (Canadian) | £291.00/t | £294.50/t | +£3.50 |
