Wheat Market Update - 9th September 2026
| Instrument | Period start (Mon 24 Aug) | Fri 4 Sep | Period end (Tue 8 Sep) | Change over period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE UK feed wheat — front month (Nov-26) | £207.50/t | £212.50/t | £215.00/t | +£7.50 (+3.6%) |
| ICE UK feed wheat — Nov-26 | £207.50/t | £212.50/t | £215.00/t | +£7.50 (+3.6%) |
| ICE UK feed wheat — May-27 | £213.50/t | £217.25/t | £219.50/t | +£6.00 (+2.8%) |
| High protein wheat (Group 1), delivered — Nov-26 | £222.50/t | £232.00/t | £232.00/t | +£9.50 (+4.3%) |
| Low protein wheat (Lows), delivered — Nov-26 | £219.50/t | £229.00/t | £229.00/t | +£9.50 (+4.3%) |
| CWRS 13.5% delivered — spot | £294.50/t | £308.00/t | £315.00/t | +£20.50 (+7.0%) |
| MATIF milling wheat — Dec-26 | €242.00/t | €245.00/t | €247.25/t | +€5.25 (+2.2%) |
| GBP/USD | 1.3647 | 1.3494 | 1.3532 | −0.0115 (−0.8%) |
| GBP/EUR | 1.1689 | 1.1648 | 1.1652 | −0.0037 (−0.3%) |
Market Drivers
Bullish Factors
Exporter stocks decline sharply in 2026/27
Russia-Ukraine shipping squeeze
European exports sharply higher
Funds record bullish bets
El Nino threat
Bearish Factors
Comfortable end-2025/26 major exporter wheat stocks
De-escalation risk
Strong Middle East/ North Africa harvests shrink import needs
Southern hemisphere crops loom
Executive Summary
📉 Sentiment indication: Russia-Ukraine hostilities are slowing their grain exports through the Black Sea to a crawl. Both countries are diverting shipments through other routes, notably overland to Europe for Ukraine, and through the Baltic for Russia, but scope for these alternatives is limited.
Reports that Russia was considering stepping up missile strikes on Ukraine dimmed hopes of Black Sea exports recovering, and fund buying drove Nov-26 UK feed wheat up £10.75/t (5.2%) to a contract-high £215.75/t;
Alongside concerns over heat damage to European and US corn, and the renewal of Iran-US hostilities, the Black Sea worries have provided cause to inject risk premium into prices.
Tightening balance sheets, weather threats and geopolitical uncertainty continue to point to higher export prices ahead. However, large carryover stocks and seasonal supplies would provide a reality check if geopolitical tensions eased.
Even if talks progress, rebuilding Black Sea export capacity (ports, shipowners, insurance) would take months, so meaningful relief looks slow; but de-escalation could unwind prices quickly. On balance, buying dips to extend cover remains the more defensible stance than waiting.
UK Focus
ICE UK feed wheat (Nov-26, the front month) settled at £215.75/t on 28 August — up £10.75/t (5.2%) on the week and a contract high, with market momentum indicators moving deep into overbought territory; and touched £219.25/t on 2 September before peace-talk headlines pulled it back to £212.50/t by Friday 4 September. It settled at £213.75/t on 7 September and £215.00/t on 8 September as the market firmed again; May-27 ended the period at £219.50/t. The new-crop Nov-27 contract also hit a contract high, ending 28 August at £208.00/t.
The latest harvest update (as of 24.08.26) from the AHDB can be seen below
Harvest progress across the UK, reports and interactive tool | AHDB
The Black Sea remains the dominant driver. Grain movements were down about 50% across July and August; Russian August shipments, at around 2 Mt, were less than half last year's, and September flows are expected to be sharply lower. Ukraine's harvest is virtually complete, with storage a growing constraint and long queues on the Danube, and Russia is re-routing some exports through the Baltic; where Latvia and Lithuania are weighing restrictions on Russian grain through their ports.
The drone and missile attacks on ports and ships, which have now brought Black Sea grain shipments from Russia and Ukraine to a standstill, have been central to the rise in US and European prices to multi-year highs.
The two countries should be responsible, combined, for nearly 30% of world exports. However, Russia’s wheat exports last month were, at 2.0Mt, more than 3.0Mt below the three-year August average, with a similar gap expected this month.
Ukraine’s exports slowed to 649Kt from an August average of 1.8Mt.
On that basis, the crisis is costing roughly 1Mt of exports a week during what is usually the peak season for Russia-Ukraine shipments, ahead of what can be a logistically difficult winter.
| Imported wheat, delivered (£/t) | 24 Aug | 8 Sep | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| German A 13% (breadmaking) | £263.50/t | £273.00/t | +£9.50 |
| German E 14% (premium breadmaking) | £287.50/t | £297.00/t | +£9.50 |
| French min 11% | £280.00/t | £287.00/t | +£7.00 |
| CWRS 13.5% (Canadian,Spot) | £294.50/t | £315.00/t | +£20.50 |
