Wheat Market Update - 30th April 2025

The Bear Remains

Please note the dash is now based off of the Nov-25 Futures

Welcome to this week’s market update! Each week, we'll delve into the market movements and key factors affecting wheat prices. Whether you're a fellow industry professional, a supplier, or simply interested in what’s happening in the market, our updates will offer valuable insights to keep you ahead of the curve.

Weekly Price Summary

Nov 2025 LIFFE feed wheat futures closed at £182.60/t, down £4.30 since the last market report on 17.04

May 2025 contracts settled at £161.30/t. The May-25 contract however has had generally low activity. Low liquidity can lead to wider bid-ask spreads and increased volatility, making the contract less reliable as a pricing reference.

Key Drivers Pressuring Prices – Weather in key grain and oilseed producing regions continues to be a big factor as crops hit important growth stages in the Northern Hemisphere, while harvest continues in South America. On top of this, ongoing uncertainty around global demand is still affecting the market.

UK Focus

Key Market Drivers

Bearish Factors:

• Crop Conditions: UK Grain market drifted lower for most of last week on the lack of no major weather issues before seeing a small recovery on Friday. So far, crops are looking well in the field, and the weather has been kind. Recent reports suggest a potential production of around 13.1 million tonnes for the 2025/26 season, factoring in a 5% adjustment to the Early Bird Survey area and average yields over the past five years. This would bring supplies back to more 'normal' levels, assuming imports remain steady (AHDB).​

• Currency Strength: The continued weakness of the Dollar/strength of the Euro due to the economic “policies” of the Trump administration is keeping European wheat values under pressure.

Bullish Factors:

• Weather Variability: It’s a weather market now. Earlier dryness raised concerns, despite some rain last week, we are now forecast for some hot weather to come.

Global Focus

Key Market Drivers

Globally, the wheat market presents a mixed picture. The International Grains Council projects world wheat production to reach a record 806.4 million tonnes in 2025/26, up by 1.1% year-on-year. However, global wheat consumption is also expected to increase, potentially leading to tighter ending stocks.

Bearish Influences:

• Russian Competition: Russia continues to sell wheat aggressively. Recent rainfall has improved crop confidence there, pressuring global benchmarks.

• Improved US Outlook: In the US recent rains has helped improve winter wheat crop ratings which led to a drop in prices.

• South America: Good weather has also helped pressure maize and soybean prices. Recent rainfall in Brazil has helped ease drought concerns.

• Larger EU Area: France’s soft wheat planting is estimated to be 10% higher than last year, adding weight to European markets.

However

Ongoing concern around global demand uncertainties, largely due to the lack of clarity around US-China trade negotiations, continue to underpin the market. Reports indicate that China plans to cut grain use in livestock feed to 60% and reduce soymeal content to 10%, as part of efforts to reduce reliance on soybean imports, particularly from the US.

While dryness concerns are growing in some other countries, including China, the world’s top wheat grower where Water Minister Li Guoying warned of worsening drought in the northern wheat belt, Chicago wheat futures fell nonetheless. The July-25 contract shed 1.0% in midday trading, setting fresh contract lows.